The Excitement of TrackersLet it not be said that investing in a tracker fund is
boring. People imagine that once you buy a tracker you sit there exposed to a bundle of
the same old companies. Not so. Since netPEP was launched in April 1987 no less than 25
companies have dropped out to be replaced by 25 new young Turks raring to show their heels
to the rest.
Rules of Entry
The entry qualification is size. This is measured
in terms of a companys market capitalisation which is calculated by multiplying the
number of shares in issue by the current share price. So companies that issue new shares,
say, to help acquire another company or companies whose share price sets a blistering pace
find themselves in the top 100 knocking their less fortunate colleagues into the 2nd
division.
Bright New Entrants for Promotion
Of the 25 companies that joined the serried ranks
of the big 100, 7 were in the financial services sector which caused some concern that
perhaps the Index was over-represented in this area and was changing the character of the
overall Index. But the financial sector was not the only one to be affected by the new
entrants. Service companies and Utilities also featured strongly with companies as diverse
as Misys, Sema and WPP Group joining in through the Services sector and British Energy,
Telewest and Scottish & Southern in the Utilities.
Old Favourites Lose Out
The companies that lost it were very
well known past favourites like Guinness, Next, Rank, Burton, Burmah Castrol and British
Steel. The one time Midlands Top Dog Manufacturer, Lucas Verity was also relegated to the
2nd Division. We even saw some soft shoe shuffling from the likes of Hanson and Dixons
which started in the 1st Division were relegated last season and this year were
promoted. In Dixons case this was all on account of the major success of the new
free Internet connection service from Freeserve.
Congratulations
All these changes naturally make it hard for
Trackers to track the Index accurately so many congratulations to BGI (Barclays
Global Investors who are netPEPs and netISAs tracker managers. Despite all the
comings and goings which run up costs that the Index does not take into account, they
maintained a minuscule tracking error of 0.2% over 2 whole years. Well done.
Sector Changes
Below is a summary of the sector changes in the
FTSE 100 Index over the 2 years of review
Sector |
April 1997 |
April 1999 |
Percentage Change |
Utilities |
12.2% |
16.7% |
+ 4.5% |
Consumer Goods |
17.9% |
16.6% |
- 1.3% |
Financials |
23.4% |
28.1% |
+ 4.7% |
Gen Industrials |
9.6% |
5.2% |
- 4.4% |
Mineral Extraction |
12.5% |
13.5% |
+ 1.0% |
Services |
24.4% |
19.9% |
- 4.5% |
The Movers and Shakers
The top performers over the 2 year period since
netISA started are interesting. Telecoms companies took the first and second place with
Vodafone just pipping Orange to the post with a massive rise over the period of 300%. Hard
on their heals was the outstanding Bank of Scotland who notched up a rise of 180% and its
Scottish competitor Royal Bank of Scotland only a few percentage points behind.
Not surprisingly British Telecom was close to the
top as were Utilities National Grid +93%, Centrica +89% and BG +84% close behind.
Expert Lose the Plot
We then have a large body of Financials filling a
large number of the top 30 slots but out of a total of 18 Financial companies in the FTSE
100 Index 10 actually failed to beat the Index over the 2 year period. This runs quite
counter to the reasons given by the active fund managers who try to beat the Index why
they failed to do so. When the financial shares were soaring in price they said it was
unhealthy to have so many banks and Insurance companies represented in a balanced
portfolio. The fact is that 98% of them failed to beat the Index over this time so maybe
the real reason they lost out was because they chose the wrong Financials!
Other sorry performers were Tesco, British
Airways, and EMI and probably for the first time ever, Marks & Spencer. What a change
of fortune.
Stats for All
For those of our readers who like to study
statistics, over the 2 year period the FTSE 100 Index rose by 47%. We have examined the
performances of those companies which started and finished in the Index without dropping
out in the middle. Of these 0nly 26 companies actually beat the Index averaging rises of
100%. The remaining 50 companies which under-performed the Index managed an average
increase in share price of only 11%, that is 36% below the index.
Conclusion
Here are some of our thoughts on investing in a
tracker fund
- Dont dismiss the Index as an average
performer
- Beating the Index is far from easy as 98% of
highly paid active managers have found.
- Index performance is NOT average performance
it is BETTER THAN average.
- The constituents of the Index are constantly
changing as better and more successful companies are promoted and the less successful are
relegated. What better stock picking process can there be than that?
As Warren Buffett said, "Buy a tracker
for 70% of your assets and play around the edges with the rest to add value." |