MONEY MARKETING
27 January 2000
The tracks of a bear
By Chris Wagstaff
Until fairly recently, the active versus passive
management debate largely revolved around the relative performance and
charges of these two fund structures. However, last year the debate
stepped up a gear as the popularity of index trackers led to the
accusation that they had transformed the momentum-driven bull market into
a highly concentrated bubble market.
More recently, the role of index tracker providers in
influencing how tracker and closet tracker funds should invest has become
a prominent topic in this highly charged debate, in addition to continued
speculation as to how trackers will fare in a market downturn.
With 70 to 80 per cent of active funds failing to
out-perform an appropriate index, the reasoning behind the growing
popularity of passive management on both sides of the Atlantic has not
been difficult to rationalise.
In a market that is increasingly momentum-driven, being
underweight in those sectors that continue to drive the market higher is
quite simply not an option.
Index tracker funds, by indiscriminately investing in
the market's biggest capitalised stocks within an increasingly narrow
range of sectors, at any price, offer the line of least resistance for
those seeking to minimise the risk of underperforming an index. The final
quarter of last year, for example, will see many UK pension funds,
underweight in telecom stocks, underperform the All Share index by some 2
per cent.
Such is the concern of relative under-performance among
UK pension funds, in particular, that recent research conducted by
US-based consultancy Greenwich Associates confirmed that these key players
are increasingly moving away from balanced management towards specialist
and index-tracking management.
Indeed, one-third of UK pension fund UK equity holdings
are now passively managed, given general disappointment with the balanced
approach adopted by several prominent UK pension fund managers.
However, this number excludes those mainstream active
managers, perhaps the overwhelming majority, who surreptitiously track
indices.
As any manager knows, the larger the number of funds
that track an index, the more difficult it is to out-perform the
benchmark, subject, of course, to the impact on market efficiency.
Coinciding with this increased popularity for
index-tracking funds has been the launch of a plethora of new indices to
reflect changing investment patterns, most with a relatively low number of
constituents to allow cost-efficient replication.
Adding to the 3,000 or so existing indices, this has in
turn intensified the battle between the three top index providers for
pre-eminence in the setting of global benchmarks. Most reflect either the
move away from regional to pan-European sector investing, in response to
an Emu-inspired single equity market, globalisation and the dominance of
multinational companies in internationally invested portfolios, or the
seemingly insatiable demand for internet stocks.
In the latter case, a dramatic increase in the number
of investors scrambling into the latest internet offering has seen the
recent introduction of a FTSE Techmark 100 index. In addition, the
composition of many older, more established indices has changed to mirror
the shift away from capital-intensive industries to those that rely on
intellectual capital. In this technologically driven world, bits and bytes
now matter more than buildings and bulldozers.
A study published in December by the London Business
School highlighted the fact that 70 per cent of the UK's 100 biggest
companies by market value in 1900 were in sectors that either no longer
exist today or are of little significance.
Needless to say, increased weightings of technology
stocks within these older, more established, indices have served to
increase their volatility, especially those that are market value
weighted.
Take internet portal company Yahoo. Half of the
four-fold rise in its share price last year was accounted for when it
entered the S&P in December. Even in the UK, a relatively unknown
microchip designer, ARM Holdings, replaced long-serving British Energy in
December's FTSE 100 reshuffle.
Although the elevation of technology stocks may raise
concerns of hope replacing experience, FTSE technology stocks represent
only about 30 per cent of the market capitalisation of the UK's biggest
company, BP Amoco.
But in the US, technology stocks account for about a
quarter of the entire market. Together with telecom stocks, they are
valued at more than the entire Japanese market, making the US particularly
vulnerable to the technology bubble bursting.
Another interesting finding in the LBS survey is that
the increased concentration of the UK equity market and the resulting
decline in investor diversification, as a result of the increased
popularity of index trackers and the copy-cat tactics of momentum-driven
active managers, is not unprecedented.
Today's top 10 UK companies account for about 35 per
cent of UK market capitalisation, as did the top 10 of 100 years ago.
Whereas today it is four sectors - banks, oil, pharmaceuticals and
telecommunications - that make up nearly 60 per cent of the FTSE 100, a
century ago it was one dynamic growth industry that dominated the market -
the railways.
In fact, market concentration levels were generally
higher during the first half of the last century than they are today.
Even 20 years ago, the All Share index was less
diversified than it is today.
Nevertheless, the prices of certain shares in these
dominant sectors have been artificially boosted as a result of a shortage
of supply in many cases being chased by index trackers, which must hold
the stock's index weighting.
In response to this development, leading index provider
FTSE International is, from June 2001, to restrict the weighting of
existing constituent companies within its indices whose free float of
equity available to the market is less than 75 per cent of outstanding
shares, so as to make its indices more representative of the market.
The changes will also see the exclusion of several
South African companies from the FTSE 100 as FTSE International tightens
up its rules regarding nationality.
Inevitably, the share prices of those companies
affected under each of these proposals dropped sharply, given the need for
both index trackers and pseudo-trackers to readjust the composition of
their portfolios once these changes are implemented.
In theory, this should reduce market concentration
although last September's European Commission proposal to allow
index-tracking funds to invest up to 35 per cent of their portfolios in a
single stock from the current maximum of 10 per cent looks certain to
muddy the waters of the concentration debate.
The FTSE International move, in conjunction with the
recent changes made by its peers, Stoxx and MSCI to the composition of
their European indices, has also served to illustrate the increased power
index providers now have over market valuations by influencing the way in
which many institutional investors construct their portfolios.
More than ever, this emphasises the importance attached
to choosing which index to track. Although indices containing large liquid
stocks have generally out-performed those containing minnows in recent
years, owing to the premium commanded for liquidity, 1999 was quite the
exception.
With the scramble for internet stocks last year
providing the fuel for momentum investing, technology-rich indices
provided investors with quite extraordinary returns. The Nasdaq returned
an all-time US stockmarket record of 86 per cent while the S&P
produced a respectable, though less awe-inspiring, 21 per cent. A not
dissimilar dichotomy of returns was also evident in the UK.
This is all very well while the market continues its
upward march but what is likely to happen to fully invested tracker funds
as and when equity markets correct?
It is fashionable to claim that trackers should
under-perform in falling markets because of their inability to move into
cash and to hedge against market risk but bear markets are notoriously
difficult to predict and no active fund manager wants to count the
opportunity cost of investing defensively.
One only has to look at the 66 per cent of UK growth
funds that failed to outperform the All Share index during the period
September to December 1987 to realise this. But the ultimate test of their
resilience has yet to appear.
While on the subject of performance, the lower costs
and turnover of tracker funds allied to the efficiency of market pricing
make them hard to beat over the longer term.
But, as was demonstrated in the second quarter last
year in the US when, unloved and under-rated, US cyclical stocks took over
the running from growth stocks, active management in general can and does
occasionally outperform.
Perhaps more important though, specialist active
management, when properly resourced and supported by original research and
a disciplined investment process can produce modest gains over and above
the appropriate benchmark. The performance of Fidelity's Magellan fund
over the past 35 years amply demonstrates this.
At a time when equity markets are pricing in Nirvana
and likely to tread water at best in the medium term, sharp-suited
diligent stockpickers and value managers must surely prosper over
auto-piloted computer modelling. As always, only time will tell if past
performance proves to be a guide to the future.
|